Posts
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[Sneak Peek] Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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Hidden Open Thread 260.5
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Janus' Simulators
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You Don't Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders
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Who Predicted 2022?
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Open Thread 260
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ACX Survey Results 2022
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Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?
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Hidden Open Thread 259.5
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SSC Survey Results On Schooling Types
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Open Thread 259
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Hidden Open Thread 258.5
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Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion
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2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts
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Highlights From The Comments On The Media Very Rarely Lying
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Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest
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Open Thread 258
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Hidden Open Thread 257.5
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Even More Bay Area House Party
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How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?
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Open Thread 257
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Take The 2022 ACX Survey!
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Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying
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Hidden Open Thread 256.6
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Links For December 2022
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Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys
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Open Thread 256
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Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences?
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The Media Very Rarely Lies
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Hidden Open Thread 255.5
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The Buying Things From A Store FAQ
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Prediction Market FAQ
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Open Thread 255
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2023 Prediction Contest
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A Crypto Exchange
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Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs
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Open Thread 254
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Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise
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Hidden Open Thread 253.5
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Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency
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Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits
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What Your Doctor Spends 80% Of Their Time Doing
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Peer Review: Prediction Market FAQ
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Open Thread 253
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Which Is Bigger, 256,000 Or A Deer?
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Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise
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Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide
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Open Thread 252
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Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate?
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If The Media Reported On Other Things Like It Does Effective Altruism
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Semaglutidonomics
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Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition
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"Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine
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Open Thread 251
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Hidden Open Thread 150.5
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The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash
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Open Thread 250
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Too Spicy For Twitter
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Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States
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Open Thread 249.5: Challenge Mode
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Can People Be Honestly Wrong About Their Own Experiences?
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Highlights From The Comments On Brain Waves
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Open Thread 249
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Highlights From The Comments On My California Ballot
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My California Ballot 2022
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ACX Grants: Project Updates
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Moderation Is Different From Censorship
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Open Thread 248.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Jhanas
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Open Thread 248
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Elon Musk Has Purchased Twitter
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Book Review: Malleus Maleficarum
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Open Thread 247.5
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Nick Cammarata On Jhana
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Highlights From The Comments On Supplement Labeling
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From The Mailbag
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Open Thread 247
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Open Thread 246.5
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Book Review: Rhythms Of The Brain
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Another Bay Area House Party
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Mantic Monday 10/17/22
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Open Thread 246
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Hidden Open Thread 245.5
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Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
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Links For October
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Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day
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Open Thread 245
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A Columbian Exchange
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LA and San Diego Meetups This Weekend
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Hidden Open Thread 244.5
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How Trustworthy Are Supplements?
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CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference
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Open Thread 244
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Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward
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Universe-Hopping Through Substack
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From Nostradamus To Fukuyama
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Open Thread 243
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Hidden Open Thread 242.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability
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Ask Me Anything
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Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?
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Janus' GPT Wrangling
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Open Thread 242
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Bay Area Meetups This Weekend
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Travelogue: Northern California
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Hidden Open Thread 241.5
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Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness
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Open Thread 241
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I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months
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Classifieds Thread 9/22
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Links For September 2022
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Open Thread 240
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The Prophet And Caesar's Wife
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Book Review Contest 2022 Winners
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Open Thread 239.5
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Billionaires, Surplus, And Replaceability
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Open Thread 239
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Your Book Review: Kora In Hell
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Meetups Everywhere 2022: Times & Places
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Hidden Open Thread 238.5
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Highlights From The Comments On The Repugnant Conclusion And WWOTF
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Effective Altruism As A Tower Of Assumptions
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Book Review: What We Owe The Future
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Open Thread 238
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Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance
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Open Thread 237.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures
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Skills Plateau Because Of Decay And Interference
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Meetups Everywhere 2022 - Call For Organizers
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Mantic Monday 8/15/22
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Open Thread 237
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Your Book Review: God Emperor Of Dune
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Will Nonbelievers Really Believe Anything?
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Hidden Open Thread 236.5
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A Cyclic Theory Of Subcultures
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Why Not Slow AI Progress?
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Open Thread 236
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Your Book Review: Exhaustion
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Hidden Open Thread 235.5
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Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries
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Absurdity Bias, Neom Edition
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Open Thread 235
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Model City Monday 8/1/22
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Your Book Review: Viral
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Links For July
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Hidden Open Thread 234.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
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Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations
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ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI
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Open Thread 234
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Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle
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Hidden Open Thread 233.5
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Perpendicular Lives II
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Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
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Open Thread 233
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Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind
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Impact Markets: The Annoying Details
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Hidden Open Thread 232.5
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Book Review: The Man From The Future
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Mantic Monday 7/11/22
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Open Thread 232
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Your Book Review: The Outlier
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Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike
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Hidden Open Thread 231.5
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Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works
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Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To
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Open Thread 231
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Your Book Review: The Internationalists
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Links For June
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Hidden Open Thread 230.5
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What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?
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Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko
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Model City Monday 6/27/22
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Open Thread 230
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Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy
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Open Thread 229.5
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Book Review: San Fransicko
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Open Thread 229
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Your Book Review: The Future Of Fusion Energy
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Peer Review: Nightmares
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Hidden Open Thread 228.5
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Open Thread 228
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Mantic Monday 6/13/22
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Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything
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Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling
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Hidden Open Thread 227.5
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Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"
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Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
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My Bet: AI Size Solves Flubs
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It's Bad On Purpose To Make You Click
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Open Thread 227
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Your Book Review: The Castrato
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Hidden Open Thread 226.5
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Classifieds Thread 6/2022
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Birth Order Effects: Nature vs. Nurture
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Open Thread 226
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A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows
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Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine
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[Peer Review] Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
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Hidden Open Thread 225.5
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In Partial, Grudging Defense Of The Hearing Voices Movement
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California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z
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Willpower, Human and Machine
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Open Thread 225
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Your Book Review: Making Nature
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Hidden Open Thread 224.5
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Lavender's Game: Silexan For Anxiety
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Link: Troof On Nootropics
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Contra Dynomight On Sexy In-Laws
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Open Thread 224
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Your Book Review: Consciousness And The Brain
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Hidden Open Thread 223.5
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Mantic Monday 5/9/22
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Book Review: The Gervais Principle
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Open Thread 223
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Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
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Why Do People Prefer My Old Blog's Layout To Substack's?
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Every Bay Area House Party
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Open Thread 222
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Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping
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Hidden Open Thread 221.5
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Current Affairs' Marxist Critique Of Toddler Show Blippi Isn't Marxist Enough
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Book Review: A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis
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Open Thread 221
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Hidden Open Thread 219.5
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Initial Conditions
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Hidden Open Thread 220.5
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Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing
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Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn"
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Mantic Monday 4/18/22
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Open Thread 220
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Irvine Meetup This Monday
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Links For April
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Obscure Pregnancy Interventions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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Biography of Jason Shea, 44th US President
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Deceptively Aligned Mesa-Optimizers: It's Not Funny If I Have To Explain It
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Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities
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Open Thread 219
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Peer Review Request: Obscure Pregnancy Interventions
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Highlights From The Comments On Self-Determination
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Hidden Open Thread 218.5
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Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping
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Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds
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Open Thread 218
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The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions
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Hidden Open Thread 217.5
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Idol Words
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Who Gets Self-Determination?
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Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets
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Open Thread 217
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Highlights From The Comments On Justice Creep
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Hidden Open Thread 216.5
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Men Will Literally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy
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Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring
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Mantic Monday 3/21/22
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Open Thread 216
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Hidden Open Thread 215.5
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The Onion Knight
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Highlights From The Comments On Zulresso
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Justice Creep
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Mantic Monday 3/14/22
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Open Thread 215
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Hidden Open Thread 214.5
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Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute
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Advice For Unwoke Academic?
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Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!
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Ukraine Thoughts And Links
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Open Thread 214
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What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
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Hidden Open Thread 213.5
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Microaddictions
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Ukraine Warcasting
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Open Thread 213
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Austin Meetup Correction
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Hidden Open Thread 212.5
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Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work
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Links For February
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Play Money And Reputation Systems
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Open Thread 212
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Hidden Open Thread 211.5
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Austin Meetup Next Sunday
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The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them
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Book Review: Sadly, Porn
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Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
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Open Thread 211
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Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning
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Hidden Open Thread 210.5
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ACX Grants ++: The Second Half
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So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program
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Two Small Corrections And Updates
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Heuristics That Almost Always Work
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The Passage Of Polymarket
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Open Thread 210
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Hidden Open Thread 209.5
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Book Review Contest Rules 2022
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ACX Grants ++: The First Half
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Why Do I Suck?
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Motivated Reasoning As Mis-applied Reinforcement Learning
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Predictions For 2022
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Open Thread 209
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Hidden Open Thread 208.5
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Classifieds Thread 1/2022
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Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems
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Bounded Distrust
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Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study
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Open Thread 208
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Grading My 2021 Predictions
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Resubmit And Summarize Your Proposals For Grants ++
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Hidden Open Thread 207.5
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Ask Me Anything
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Book Review: Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?
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Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents
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Open Thread 207
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There's A Time For Everyone
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Hidden Open Thread 206.5
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Open Thread 206
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Highlights From The Comments On "Don't Look Up"
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Open Thread 205.5
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Name's The Same
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Movie Review: Don't Look Up
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Lewis Carroll Invented Retroactive Public Goods Funding In 1894
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Open Thread 205
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Open Thread 204.5
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Links For December
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ACX Grants Results
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Open Thread 204
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Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
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Open Thread 203.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality
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Addendum To "No Evidence" Post
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Addendum To Luvox Post
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The FDA Has Punted Decisions About Luvox Prescription To The Deepest Recesses Of The Human Soul
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Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
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Open Thread 203
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The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication
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Open Thread 202.5
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Ancient Plagues
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Open Thread 202
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Does Georgism Work, Part 3: Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately From Buildings?
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Does Georgism Work? Part 2: Can Landlords Pass Land Value Tax on to Tenants?
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Hidden Open Thread 201.5
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Does Georgism Work? Is Land Really A Big Deal?
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Diseasonality
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Model City Monday 12/6/21
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Open Thread 201
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Open Thread 200.5
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Book Review: Lifespan
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MM: Omicron Variant
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Open Thread 200
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Links For November
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Pascalian Medicine
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Open Thread 199.5
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Higlights From The Comments On Ivermectin
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Highlights From The Comments On The FDA And Paxlovid
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When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid?
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Open Thread 199
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Open Thread 198.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Great Families
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Continental Drip
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Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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Mantic Monday 11/15
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Open Thread 198
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Open Thread 197.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Orban
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Apply For An ACX Grant
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Secrets Of The Great Families
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Open Thread 197
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Model City Monday 11/8/21
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Open Thread 196.5
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Dictator Book Club: Orban
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Non-Cognitive Skills For Educational Attainment Suggest Benefits Of Mental Illness Genes
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Mantic Monday 11/1/21
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Open Thread 196
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Jhanas and the Dark Room Problem
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Learn British English With ACX
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Epistemic Minor Leagues
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Open Thread 195 + Cambridge/Edinburgh Meetups This Weekend
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Chilling Effects
-
Open Thread 194 + London/Oxford Meetups This Weekend
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Links For October
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Correction: London Meetup Location
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Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Global Warming
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Please Don't Give Up On Having Kids Because Of Climate Change
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Learn German With ACX
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Open Thread 193 + Berlin/Paris Meetups This Weekend
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Classifieds Thread 10/2021
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Highlights From The Comments On Modern Architecture
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Open Thread 192 + Vienna/Prague Meetups This Weekend
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Learn Spanish With ACX
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Open Thread 191.5
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Book Review: The Scout Mindset
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Open Thread 191 + Madrid/Zurich Meetups This Weekend
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Whither Tartaria?
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Learn Portuguese With ACX
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Links For September
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Open Thread 190
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Lisbon Meetup This Saturday
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Book Review: The Revolt Of The Public
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Open Thread 189.5
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Book Review: Modi - A Political Biography
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Open Thread 189
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Washington DC Meetup This Saturday
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The Unbearable Semiheaviness Of Being
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Open Thread 188.5
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Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts
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Open Thread 188
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New York Meetup This Monday
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Boston Meetup This Sunday
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Open Thread 187.5
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Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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Peer Review: Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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On Hreha On Behavioral Economics
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Open Thread 187
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Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
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Highlights From The Comments On Missing School
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If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Governor Of California?
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Carbon Costs Quantified
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Meetups Everywhere 2021: Times And Places
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Open Thread 186
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Highlights From The Comments On Aducanumab
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Peer Review Request: Carbon Costs Quantified
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Open Thread 185.5
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Links For August
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Kids Can Recover From Missing Even Quite A Lot Of School
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Open Thread 185
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Blindness, Schizophrenia, and Autism
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Contra Hanania On Partisanship
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Open Thread 184.5
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Classifieds Thread 8/2021
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(Outdoor, Careful) Meetups Everywhere 2021 - Seeking Organizers
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Eight Hundred Slightly Poisoned Word Games
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Open Thread 184
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Contra Drum On The Fish Oil Story
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Open Thread 183.5
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Details Of The Infant Fish Oil Story
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Highlights From The Comments On Acemoglu And AI
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Adumbrations Of Aducanumab
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What Should We Make Of Sasha Chapin's Claim That Taking LSD Restored His Sense Of Smell After COVID?
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Model City Monday 8/2/21
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Open Thread 183
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Updated Look At Long-Term AI Risks
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When Does Worrying About Things Trade Off Against Worrying About Other Things?
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Contra Acemoglu On...Oh God, We're Doing This Again, Aren't We?
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Mantic Monday 7/26
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Open Thread 182
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Links For July
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Open Thread 181.5
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Things I Learned Writing The Lockdown Post
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Highlights From The Comments On "Crazy Like Us"
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Peer Review Request: Ketamine
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Open Thread 181
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Please Take The Reader Survey
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Open Thread 180.5
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Book Review: Crazy Like Us
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Reader Survey Final Check-In
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Use Prediction Markets To Fund Investigative Reporting
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Open Thread 180
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Book Review Contest: Winners
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Open Thread 179.5
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Is This Predictive Coding?
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Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
-
Model City Monday
-
Open Thread 179
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Open Thread 178.5
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Highlights From The Comments On "How Asia Works"
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Welcome Polygenically Screened Babies
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Book Review: How Asia Works
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Open Thread 178
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Open Thread 177.5
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ACX Reader Research Survey: Call For Submissions
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Perpendicular Lives
-
Links For June
-
Mantic Monday 6/21/21
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Open Thread 177
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Vote In The Book Review Contest!
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Your Book Review: Plagues And Peoples
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Peer Review: Lockdown Effectiveness
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Open Thread 176.5
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On Cerebralab On Nutt/Carhart-Harris On Serotonin
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Contra Smith On Jewish Selective Immigration
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Open Thread 176
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Your Book Review: How Children Fail
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Open Thread 175.5
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Your Book Review: Down And Out In Paris And London
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Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs
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I Will Not Eat The Bugs
-
Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets
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Open Thread 175
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Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car?
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Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
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You Have A Terrible Track Record In Guessing My Motives
-
Open Thread 174.5
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Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef
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What Do Treatments For Accelerated Aging Tell Us About Normal Aging?
-
Open Thread 174
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Your Book Review: Humankind
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Open Thread 173.5
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COVID Suicides: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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Reflections On Greed Being Made Of Smaller Parts
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Peer Review Request: Depression
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Book Review: Arabian Nights
-
Open Thread 173
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Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower
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Links For May
-
The Coldness Of Karen
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Hidden Open Thread 172.5
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Highlights From The Comments On Culture Wars
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Open Thread 172
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Your Book Review: Addiction By Design
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Hidden Open Thread 171.5
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Highlights From The Comments On CBT-i Apps
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Welcome To The Terrible World Of Prescription-Only Apps
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Theses On The Current Moment
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The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars
-
Open Thread 171
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My Favorite ICD-10 Codes
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Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson
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Hidden Open Thread 170.5
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Your Book Review: Through The Eye Of A Needle
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Why Is It Hard To Acknowledge Preferences?
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Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism
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If You Can Be Bad, You Can Also Be Good
-
Open Thread 170
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Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet
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Hidden Open Thread 169.5
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Your Book Review: Double Fold
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Nootropics Survey 2020 Results
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Verses Written On The Occasion Of Getting The COVID Vaccine
-
Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
-
Open Thread 169
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Your Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True
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Your Book Review: Are We Smart Enough To Know How Smart Animals Are?
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Hidden Open Thread 168.5
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Book Review: Global Economic History
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No, Really, Why Are So Many Christians In Colombia Converting To Orthodox Judaism?
-
Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions
-
Open Thread 168
-
Georgist Cartoons Of The Late 19th/Early 20th Century
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Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty
-
Hidden Open Thread 167.5
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Prospectus On Próspera
-
[LINK] Unifying Predictive Coding With Backpropagation
-
Links For April
-
Open Thread 167
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From The Rejects Pile: Catch-22
-
Your Book Review: On The Natural Faculties
-
Your Book Review: Order Without Law
-
Hidden Open Thread 166.5
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Metis And Bodybuilders
-
Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems
-
2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
-
Open Thread 166
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Hidden Open Thread 165.5
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Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure
-
Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram
-
Open Thread 165
-
Ask Me Anything
-
Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower
-
More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship
-
Hidden Open Thread 164.5
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Book Review: Antifragile
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Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances
-
Open Thread 164
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Hidden Open Thread 163.5
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Book Review: The New Sultan
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Sleep Is The Mate Of Death
-
Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
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Open Thread 163
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Richard Nixon Vs. Cool
-
Hidden Open Thread 162.5
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Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality
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The Consequences Of Radical Reform
-
Open Thread 162
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They're Made Out Of Meta
-
Highlights From The Comments On Class
-
Highlights From The Comments On March Links
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Hidden Open Thread 161.5
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Links For March
-
Shilling For Big Mitochondria
-
Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
-
Open Thread 161
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Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews
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A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class"
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Hidden Open Thread 160.5
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Book Review: Fussell On Class
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Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
-
Open Thread 160
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A Look Down Track B
-
Movie Review: Gabriel Over The White House
-
Ezra Klein On Vetocracy
-
Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart
-
Book Review: The Cult Of Smart
-
COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
-
Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread
-
Statement on New York Times Article
-
The Precision Of Sensory Evidence
-
List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC
-
Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures
-
Hidden Open Thread 159.5
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Book Review: Why We're Polarized
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Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
-
Open Thread 159
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Journalism and Legible Expertise
-
WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise
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Hidden Open Thread 158.5
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Book Review Contest Final Rules
-
Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems
-
Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin'
-
Metaculus Monday
-
Open Thread 158
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Technocracy-Zilla: Origins
-
Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy
-
Contra Weyl On Technocracy
-
Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics
-
Hidden Open Thread 157.5
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Know Your Amphetamines
-
Open Thread 157
-
Logistics
-
Still Alive
-
You're Probably Wondering Why I've Called You Here Today
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